Coronavirus Outbreak Has Likely Peaked In Ontario, Officials Say

The Ontario government has reduced coronavirus death estimates from a worst-case scenario of 300,000 and a more practical scenario of 80,000 to likely fewer than 20,000, it said Monday.

While earlier models predicted a peak in coronavirus cases in May, government officials say that drastic public health interventions have accelerated the peak to now.

"The modelling clearly demonstrates that we are making progress in our fight against this deadly virus," Ontario Premier Doug Ford said in a news release. "That's due to the actions of all Ontarians, those who are staying home and practising physical distancing, and to the heroic efforts of our frontline health care workers." 

Ontario currently has 11,561 known coronavirus cases and an estimated 591 deaths.

"But COVID-19 continues to be a clear and present danger, especially to our seniors and most vulnerable citizens. That is why we must continue to follow the advice of our chief medical officer of health and stay the course in order to keep people safe and healthy,” Ford said.

In releasing the new model, the government said it has no current plans to reopen all or part of the shuttered economy or curtail social distancing. The province’s emergency declaration, which shuttered nonessential businesses and limited gatherings to five people, remains in place until at least May 12.

Federally, a ban on nonessential travel between Canada, Mexico and the United States has been extended for another month. 

"The information released today shows early but unmistakable signs that our efforts are working," Minister of Health Christine Elliott said. "These numbers are not an accident. They are the result of months of planning and collective action to stop the spread of COVID-19 and flatten the curve. However, in order for these projections to become reality, each of us must continue to stay home as much possible and practise physical distancing."